Model-based patterns in stomach cancer mortality worldwide

Three patterns for the variation in stomach cancer mortality worldwide were identified, allowing the creation of a model with three different stages that develop sequentially through a period of approximately 70 years, which may serve as a basis for predictions of the future trend.

Authors and Affiliations:

Bárbara Peleteiro^a,b, Milton Severo^a,b, Carlo La Vecchia^c,d, Nuno Lunet^a,b

^aDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School, Porto, Portugal

^bInstitute of Public Health, University of Porto (ISPUP), Porto, Portugal

^cDepartment of Epidemiology, IRCCS-Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Milan, Italy

^dDepartment of Medical Sciences and Public Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy

Abstract:

The decrease in stomach cancer mortality was not because of specific interventions, and is likely that different countries follow a similar model of variation.

In this work, we aimed to identify model-based patterns in the time trends of stomach cancer mortality between 1980 and 2010, based on mathematical models for the grouping of the countries that followed a similar evolution of the mortality rates.

By analyzing stomach cancer mortality data from 62 countries, we identified three main patterns: pattern 1, with the highest mortality rates in 1980, followed by pattern 2, with intermediate values, and pattern 3, presenting the lowest rates. The decrease in mortality rates was greater in 1980-1995 than during 1996-2010.

The mortality rates observed in each pattern were inversely related to the median gross national income per capita for the countries included in each pattern. Most countries included in pattern 1 were from Latin America and Eastern Europe, whereas those from Northern America, Western Europe and Oceania were predominantly in pattern 3.

Assuming that the patterns characterized by the highest rates precede temporally those with lower mortality, a temporal sequence of approximately 70 years is proposed for the downward trend from the highest to the lowest rates observed in these countries, with a lag of about 20 years between subsequent patterns. Therefore, in the absence of new strategies for gastric cancer prevention and control, countries in pattern 1 will have to go by the two subsequent phases until reaching the lowest mortality rates.

Portugal is on pattern 2, which highlights the potential for a further decrease in stomach cancer mortality in our country.

Journal: European Journal of Cancer Prevention

Link: http://journals.lww.com/eurjcancerprev/Abstract/2014/11000/Model_based_patterns_in_stomach_cancer_mortality.6.aspx